Warren D. Smith, Oct 2015
For each federal election in Canada, 1980-2015 (which is 11 elections in all), we tabulate the number (and percentage) of seats won by each party, the popular-vote-percentage obtained by that party, and the number of "top up seats" that would be required to bring that party's seat count up to proportionality (to within ±1 seat) if among the W seats in parliament T were top-up seats while W-T were elected directly using the same seat-percentages as officially happened. For each election we compute the minimal total number T of top up seats needed to reach proportionality (the resulting T values differ from election to election). We also state the total number C of candidates and V of voters. (0≤T<W≤C<V.) And the gap (difference in vote percentages) between the top and 2nd top party.
Observe that in 8 out of 11 cases, the governing party was given zero top-up seats. That is because, usually, single-winner voting systems (especially plurality) tend to yield overrepresentation (and also the most overrepresentation) by the top party in parliament. In such cases a minimal top-up would only give seats to the nongoverning parties. However, that over-representation is only a trend, not a guarantee; sometimes (e.g. 2008) the top party would deserve top-up seats.
Also note that in 9 out of 11 cases, making 33% (or fewer) seats be top-ups would have been enough to obtain proportionality. And one might conjecture that if score voting – a better single-winner system – had been used instead of plurality voting, then this 33% could safely be decreased (to, perhaps, 25%?). If Canada had had a fixed 33% top-up 67% local-MP composition for parliament, then the average fraction of parliament consisting of MPs elected from the top party and via top-up (simultaneously) would have been about 2%.
2015 J.Trudeau (W=338, C=1792, V=17592778; this is the largest number of voters ever; Gap=7.58%):PARTY SEATS SEAT% VOTE% TOP-UP-SEATS(T=92=27.22%) Liberal 184 54.44 39.47 -0.9 Conservative 99 29.29 31.89 35.9 NewDemocratic 44 13.02 19.71 35.0 BlocQuebecois 10 2.96 4.66 8.7 Green 1 0.30 3.45 11.3 (Independent) 0 0.00 0.28 1.02011 S.Harper (W=308, C=1587, V=14720580, Gap=8.99%):
PARTY SEATS SEAT% VOTE% TOP-UP-SEATS(T=80=25.97%) Conservative 166 53.90 39.62 -0.9 NewDemocratic 103 33.44 30.63 17.8 Liberal 34 11.04 18.91 32.8 BlocQuebecois 4 1.30 6.04 16.0 Green 1 0.32 3.91 11.3 (Independent) 0 0.00 0.49 2.02008 S.Harper (W=308, C=1601, V=13834294. This election featured the lowest turnout ever, 58.8%. Gap=9.39%):
PARTY SEATS SEAT% VOTE% TOP-UP-SEATS(T=107=34.74%) Conservative 143 46.43 37.65 22.7 Liberal 77 25.00 28.26 36.8 BlocQuebecois 49 15.91 9.98 -1.0 NewDemocratic 37 12.01 18.18 31.9 (Independent) 2 0.65 0.69 0.7 Green 0 0.00 6.78 21.02006 S.Harper (W=308, C=1634, V=14817159, Gap=6.04%):
PARTY SEATS SEAT% VOTE% TOP-UP-SEATS(T=109=35.39%) Conservative 124 40.26 36.27 31.9 Liberal 103 33.44 30.23 26.5 BlocQuebecois 51 16.56 10.48 -1.0 NewDemocratic 29 9.42 17.48 35.3 (Independent) 1 0.32 0.55 1.4 Green 0 0.00 4.48 14.02004 P.Martin (W=308, C=1683, V=13564702, Gap=7.10%):
PARTY SEATS SEAT% VOTE% TOP-UP-SEATS(T=86=27.92%) Liberal 135 43.83 36.73 15.7 Conservative 99 32.14 29.63 19.6 BlocQuebecois 54 17.53 12.39 -0.9 NewDemocratic 19 6.17 15.68 34.3 (Independent) 1 0.32 0.48 0.3 Green 0 0.00 4.29 13.02000 J.Chretien (W=301, C=1808, V=12857773, Gap=15.36%):
PARTY SEATS SEAT% VOTE% TOP-UP-SEATS(T=85=28.24%) Liberal 172 57.14 40.85 -0.4 Alliance 66 21.93 25.49 29.6 BlocQuebecois 38 12.62 10.72 4.7 NewDemocratic 13 4.32 8.51 16.7 ProgrConserv 12 3.99 12.19 28.4 Green 0 0.00 0.81 2.01997 J.Chretien (W=301, C=1672, V=12985974, Gap=19.11%):
PARTY SEATS SEAT% VOTE% TOP-UP-SEATS(T=76=25.25%) Liberal 155 51.50 38.46 0.1 Reform 60 19.93 19.35 13.1 BlocQuebecois 44 14.62 10.67 -0.9 NewDemocratic 21 6.98 11.05 17.3 ProgrConserv 20 6.64 18.84 42.0 (Independent) 1 0.33 0.46 0.3 Green 0 0.00 0.43 1.01993 J.Chretien (W=295, C=2155, V=13667671; this election features the greatest average number C/W≈7.31 of candidates per seat during the period 1972-2015 and probably ever. Also 14 parties contested this election, which was at the time a record high. Gap=22.55%, also highest at least within our data-years. Note also that Reform got more votes but fewer seats than BlocQuebecois):
PARTY SEATS SEAT% VOTE% TOP-UP-SEATS(T=91=30.85%) Liberal 177 60.00 41.24 -0.4 BlocQuebecois 54 18.31 13.52 2.7 Reform 52 17.63 18.69 19.0 NewDemocratic 9 3.05 6.88 13.8 ProgrConserv 2 0.68 16.04 45.6 (Independent) 1 0.34 0.73 1.3 National 0 0.00 1.38 4.01988 B.Mulroney (W=295, C=1573, V=13175494. Highest turnout 75.3% among elections tabulated here, tied with 1984. Gap=11.10%):
PARTY SEATS SEAT% VOTE% TOP-UP-SEATS(T=72=24.41%) ProgrConserv 169 57.29 43.02 -0.8 Liberal 83 28.14 31.92 31.3 NewDemocratic 43 14.58 20.38 27.5 Reform 0 0.00 2.09 6.01984 B.Mulroney (W=282, C=1449, V=12548862; this election features the least average number 1449/282≈5.14 of candidates per seat. Highest turnout 75.3% among elections tabulated here, tied with 1988. Gap=22.01%):
PARTY SEATS SEAT% VOTE% TOP-UP-SEATS(T=93=32.98%) ProgrConserv 211 74.82 50.03 -0.4 Liberal 40 14.18 28.02 52.2 NewDemocratic 30 10.64 18.81 32.9 (Independent) 1 0.35 0.31 0.3 Rhinoceros 0 0.00 0.79 2.01980 P.Trudeau (W=282, C=1497, V=10949536, Gap=11.89%):
PARTY SEATS SEAT% VOTE% TOP-UP-SEATS(T=41=14.54%) Liberal 147 52.13 44.34 -0.6 ProgrConserv 103 36.52 32.45 4.0 NewDemocratic 32 11.35 19.77 28.7 SocialCredit 0 0.00 1.70 5.0
Although 1984 and 1988 featured the highest turnouts at 75.3% among the elections tabulated here, these fell short of the greatest turnout ever, which was 79.4% in 1958. I am not sure whether the 22.55% vote-percentage gap in 1993 was the greatest ever. It might be.
| year | Avg #canddts | Max #canddts | #ridings with maximal #canddts | Which ridings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1792/338=5.30177 | 10 | 2 | Papineau, EdmontonStrathcona. |
| 2011 | 1587/308=5.15259 | 9 | 4 | Surrey-Sud/WhiteRock/Cloverdale, Laurier/Sainte-Marie, HamiltonEast/StoneyCreek, WestVancouver/SunshineCoast/SeaToSkyCountry. |
| 2008 | 1601/308=5.19805 | 10 | 1 | Guelph. |
| 2006 | 1634/308=5.30519 | 11 | 1 | Outremont. |
| 2004 | 1683/308=5.46428 | 9 | 4 | Papineau, OttawaCentre, VancouverSouth, Saint-Laurent/Cartierville. |
| 2000 | 1808/301=6.00664 | 10 | 14 | ? |
| 1997 | 1672/301=5.55482 | 11 | 2 | ? |
| 1996 (by-election) | 13 | 1 | HamiltonEast. |
(Table for years 2004-2015 computed by Brian Goldman from datafiles supplied by Elections Canada. For years 1996-2004 extracted from Elections Canada reports.)
There also were at least three ridings in the 1993 general election (Vancouver Quadra won by E.W. "Ted" McWhinney; Vancouver East won by Anna Terrana; Vancouver South won by Herb Dhaliwal) featuring at least 13 candidates, which might be the all-time record and probably is the record among the elections 1980-2015. (Also at least one riding in 1988 featured 12 candidates.) In any case it seems that ridings have ≥13 candidates only about 1 time in 1000.
Parties vs Independents: In 1997, 95% of candidates ran under the flag of a party, only 5% were unaffiliated.
(Much of the year-2015 notes below stolen from a CBC News piece.)
2015: Turnout=69%. (The highest-turnout single riding was Ottawa Centre with 85%.)
24 parties ran candidates (plus there were unaffiliated candidates) but only 4 parties won seats – Liberals, Conservative, NDP, and Bloc Quebecois – and no unaffiliated MPs won.
The ridings with the greatest number of candidates apparently were Edmonton Mill Woods with 8 (Jasvir Deol, Peter Downing, Ralph McLean, Allen KW Paley, Naomi Rankin, Amarjeet Sohi, Colin Stubbs, Tim Uppal) and Hochelaga with 8 (Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet, Marianne Fontaine, Christine Dandenault, Alexandre Dang, Nicolas Lemay, Simon Marchand, Marwah Rizqy, Anne-Marie Saint-Cerny). Warning: my software hack may have been confused by data formatting issues in the 2015 results file, so these "8"s are only lower bounds.
In 22 ridings, the margin of victory was 1.5% or less. The narrowest margin was in Winnipeg's Elmwood-Transcona, where, as of Oct. 21, the NDP's Daniel Blaikie won by 51 votes, 0.1%, over his Conservative opponent, Lawrence Toet, the MP since 2011.
Liberal Judy Foote won the highest share of the vote, 81.8%, in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. (She'd represented the Newfoundland south shore riding since 2008.)
The winning candidate with the smallest share of the vote – just 28.5% – was newcomer Brigitte Sansoucy, running for the NDP in Quebec's Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot riding.
Niagara Falls riding had more people on the voters list than any other with 102602, with Edmonton-Wetaskiwin next at 98502. Canada's largest electoral district by area, Nunavut, had the smallest number of voters listed, 19223. (The median size for a riding is about 78600 voters.)
Thirty candidates received 40% or more of the votes but still lost. In St. John's East, incumbent NDP MP Jack Harris got 45.3% of the popular vote, but Liberal Nick Whalen won.
Two candidates with more than 30 per cent of the popular vote finished in third place: Liberal Steve Powrie in B.C.'s Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, with 30.5 per cent, and in Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, Saskatchewan's most northerly riding, Conservative Rob Clarke finished third with 30.2 per cent of the votes. He had represented the area – a new constituency – since 2008.
Brian Goldman asked: How many seats were won without a majority? The answer is: 'most of them':
2011: Turnout=61%.
How many seats were won without a majority? The answer is: 'most of them':
Women: In 2015: 88 women MPs were elected out of 338 total (26%, highest ever); about 33% of the candidates were women. In 2011: 77 women MPs were elected out of 308 total (25%); about 33% of the candidates were women. 1988 was the first time women were above 10%, and 1997 was the first time women were above 20%, of parliament; and in both cases they have exceeded those levels ever since. 24.4% of the candidates were women in 1997.
Number of parties running at least 3 MP candidates: ("Independent" and "unaffiliated" also counted as "parties" for present purpose provided at least 3 independent candidates ran nationwide)
YEAR #parties 2015 18 2011 18 2008 17 2006 15 2004 13 2000 13 1997 12 1993 16 1988 14 1984 13 1980 12
Alliance of the North Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party of Canada Bloc Quebecois Canada Party Canadian Action Party Christian Heritage Party of Canada Communist Party of Canada Conservative Party of Canada Democratic Advancement Party of Canada Forces et Democratie Green Party of Canada Liberal Party of Canada Libertarian Party of Canada Marijuana Party Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada New Democratic Party Party for Accountability, Competency and Transparency Pirate Party of Canada Progressive Canadian Party Rhinoceros Party Seniors Party of Canada The Bridge Party of Canada United Party of Canada
Bloc Quebecois Reform Party of Canada The Green Party of Canada New Democratic Party Natural Law Party of Canada Christian Heritage Party of Canada Liberal Party of Canada Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada Progressive Conservative Party of Canada Canadian Action Party
In 1972 there were only 4 registered parties, which was the lowest count during 1972-2015.
Population: 35.2 million (year 2013).
[Compare:
China 1357M,
India 1252M ,
USA 319M,
Brazil 200M,
Russia 144M,
Germany 80.6M,
UK 64.1M,
Australia 23.1M,
Netherlands 16.8M,
Israel 8.1M,
Ireland 4.6M,
Malta 0.42M.]
Land area: 10.0 million km².
[Compare:
Russia 17.1,
USA 9.9,
China 9.6,
Brazil 8.5,
Australia 7.7,
Germany 0.36,
UK 0.24,
Ireland 0.084,
Netherlands 0.042,
Israel 0.021,
Malta 0.00032.]
Capital: in 1857, Ottawa become the capital. It is slightly on the Ontario side of the Ontario-Quebec border (actually extends over that border, if you count Gatineau), and also lies only about 50-100 km from the USA (New York state) border. In 2011, the populations of the City of Ottawa and the Ottawa-Gatineau census metropolitan area (CMA) were 883,391 and 1,236,324 respectively, making it both the 4th largest city and 4th largest CMA by population in Canada.
Provinces & Territories: As of year 2015 there are 10 provinces and 3 territories:
| Province | Abbrev | Population(millions) | Area (thousand km²) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ontario | ON | 13.7 | 1076 |
| Quebec | QC | 8.2 | 1542 |
| British Columbia | BC | 4.6 | 945 |
| Alberta | AB | 4.1 | 661 |
| Manitoba | MB | 1.3 | 648 |
| Saskatchewan | SK | 1.1 | 651 |
| Nova Scotia | NS | 0.94 | 55 |
| New Brunswick | NB | 0.75 | 73 |
| Newfoundland+Labrador | NL | 0.53 | 405 |
| Prince Edward Island | PE | 0.15 | 5.7 |
| Territory | Abbrev | Population(millions) | Area (thousand km²) |
| Northwest | NT | 0.041 | 1183 |
| Yukon | YT | 0.034 | 474 |
| Nunavut | NU | 0.032 | 1936 |
Canada2000candidateList.csv, Canada2004candidateList.csv, Canada2004candidateList.txt, Canada2006candidateList.txt, Canada2008candidateList.txt, Canada2011candidateList.txt, Canada2015detailedResults.txt