Competitiveness and turnout

"A low voter turnout is an indication of fewer people going to the polls." – U.S. Vice President J. Danforth Quayle

Competiveness and the feeling (justified by recent history) that your side has a decent chance to win, increase turnout; this fact is supported by all 7 of the following studies:

  1. G.Pillsbury, J.Johannesen, J.Arp: America Goes to the Polls A report of voter turnout in the 2006 election, www.nonprofitvote.org. (On page 9: the "non-competitive" states had 37% turnout and the ones with "competitive" governor and/or senate races had 45%.)
  2. Vanderleeuw JM, Liu BD: Political empowerment, mobilization, and black voter roll-off, URBAN AFFAIRS REVIEW 37,3 (Jan 2002) 380-396
  3. Endersby JW, Galatas SE, Rackaway CB: Closeness counts in Canada: Voter participation in the 1993 and 1997 federal elections, JOURNAL OF POLITICS 64,2 (May 2002) 610-631
  4. Nicholson SP, Miller RA: Prior beliefs and voter turnout in the 1986 and 1988 congressional elections, POLITICAL RESEARCH QUARTERLY 50,1 (Mar 1997) 199-213
  5. HILL KQ, LEIGHLEY JE: PARTY IDEOLOGY, ORGANIZATION, AND COMPETITIVENESS AS MOBILIZING FORCES IN GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE 37,4 (Nov 1993) 1158-1178
  6. SE Galatas: Electing the first parliament – Party competition and voter participation in Scotland, PARTY POLITICS 10,2 (Mar 2004) 213-233
  7. Christine Fauvelle-Aymar & Abel Francois: The impact of closeness on turnout: An empirical relation based on a study of a two-round ballot, PUBLIC CHOICE 127, 3-4 (Jun 2006) 469-491
    Abstract: Several methodological difficulties emerge from the empirical evaluation of the impact of closeness on turnout. The most critical resides in the use of the actual electoral results to assess the impact of closeness. Important doubt therefore remains with respect to the empirical validity of the relationship between turnout and closeness. This article intends to explore this ambiguity by an econometric analysis of the two-round French legislative elections. The first ballot gives excellent information to the voters on the expected closeness of the upcoming second ballot. The results show that closeness, whatever its measure, has an important and meaningful impact on electoral participation.

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